紐約時報：川普翻臉快，中國扛得住

點擊：  作者：Keith Bradsher    來源：英文聯(lián)播  發(fā)布時間:2018-06-22 08:06:15

 

       As Trump Escalates Trade Fight, China Can Take the Hit

      Thanks to President Trump’s tariffs, Americans will soon be paying more for a wide variety of Chinese-made goods, and some American customers may end up buying from other countries instead.

        特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅政策，很快會讓美國人花更多的錢購買各類中國產(chǎn)品，有些美國客戶可能會選擇其他國家的商品。

        For now, China can live with that.

        可暫時看來，中國倒無所謂。

      The tariffs the White House announced on Friday will have little immediate impact on China, despite the size of the $50 billion in goods involved and the invective the move set off from Chinese official news media. 

       白宮上周五宣布要征收的關(guān)稅對中國的直接影響微乎其微，雖然500億美元商品規(guī)模不小，中國官方新聞媒體也罵得挺兇。

     Mr. Trump’s tariffs are ultimately too small and narrowly targeted to seriously affect China’s nearly $13 trillion economy, which no longer depends so much on exports and can easily find other places besides the United States to sell its products.

       說到底，特朗普先生要征收的關(guān)稅太少、太局限了，沒法對一個體量接近13萬億美元的經(jīng)濟體造成嚴重影響，中國已不再嚴重依賴出口，況且還可以輕松找到美國以外的其他地區(qū)銷售產(chǎn)品。

 

      The tariffs could spread, of course. Mr. Trump escalated his trade fight with China on Monday, saying the administration would identify another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that could face 10 percent tariffs. The president criticized China’s actions, saying it was determined to keep the United States “at a permanent and unfair disadvantage.” The question is whether Mr. Trump will make good on his threats.

       當(dāng)然，關(guān)稅范圍還可以進一步擴大。周一，特朗普先生升級了貿(mào)易斗法，表示政府要另行制定對價值2000億美元的中國商品征收10%的關(guān)稅。總統(tǒng)批評了中國的行為，表示中國決心讓美國“永遠處于不公平的劣勢地位”。問題在于，特朗普先生是否會兌現(xiàn)他的威脅。

       China could retaliate with its own tariffs on the United States’ far smaller exports in the other direction across the Pacific. Plus, it could impose punitive measures against American companies doing business here.

       中國可以對美國出口商品征收報復(fù)性關(guān)稅，而從另一個方向跨過太平洋的商品要少得多。另外，中國還可以對在華美國公司施加懲罰性措施。

     Any measures carry the risk that they could disrupt the global supply chain in sudden and unexpected ways, or could damage confidence among investors in building factories and other businesses in either country.

     任何措施都存在以難以預(yù)料的方式突然破壞全球供應(yīng)鏈的風(fēng)險，或是損害在兩國建廠和做生意的投資者的信心。

      Already there are signs of strains in the global economy from the broader trade tensions, weakness that China and the United States are both better positioned to weather than other nations.

      全球經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)因這種貿(mào)易對立關(guān)系出現(xiàn)緊張跡象，而中美兩國都比其他國家更抗得住。

       Still, the absence of immediate impact could also give both sides breathing room to calm down.

       另外，并未立即產(chǎn)生影響，這也讓雙方有一個冷靜的空間。

      Each has its reasons for ducking a fight. The United States may need China’s help to keep its uneasy peace with North Korea. Beijing has stickier issues, like breaking the country’s addiction to debt-fueled economic growth without hurting growth. Already some indicators show signs of a slowdown, though if it worsens significantly Beijing may find Mr. Trump’s tariffs could make a convenient scapegoat.

       雙方都有理由休戰(zhàn)。美國需要中國的幫助，保住與朝鮮來之不易的和平。中國則有更為棘手的問題，中國要在不損害增長的情況下轉(zhuǎn)變該國對債務(wù)經(jīng)濟增長模式的依賴。中國已經(jīng)有一些經(jīng)濟放緩的跡象，盡管如果嚴重惡化，北京正好將特朗普先生的關(guān)稅政策當(dāng)做替罪羊。

     China in particular risks being distracted. Its point person on tackling debt, a senior economic official named Liu He, has also been deeply involved in trade negotiations, though Chinese officials say Beijing has the bandwidth to handle both.

        中國尤其容易分心。解決債務(wù)問題的牽頭人是負責(zé)經(jīng)濟的高官劉鶴，他同時也深入?yún)⑴c貿(mào)易談判，盡管中國官員表示北京有能力同時解決兩個問題。

     “The strain on the top leadership as it tries to fend off a trade war with the U.S. as well as de-risk China’s financial sector is considerable,” said Diana Choyleva, the chief economist with Enodo Economics, a London research firm specializing in China. “They cannot afford to drop the ball on either front.”

        “要抵御同美國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，同時要化解中國金融部門風(fēng)險，這給領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層帶來的壓力是巨大的，”研究中國的英國公司Enodo Economics首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家戴安娜·喬伊列娃說。“兩頭都不能失誤。”

 

      For both sides, the issue has become far more than a struggle over nuts-and-bolts economics. It has become a battle over which country will dominate the high-wage, high-skill industries of tomorrow. Washington and Beijing alike see those industries as essential to protecting national security and to creating jobs.

       對兩國而言，問題遠不止于對具體經(jīng)濟細節(jié)的爭斗，這是一場戰(zhàn)事，決定了哪個國家將主導(dǎo)高工資、高技術(shù)的明日產(chǎn)業(yè)。華盛頓和北京都認為這些產(chǎn)業(yè)對保護國家安全和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)而言至關(guān)重要。

      The Trump administration is pushing hard for curbs on China’s $300 billion government program to bolster these industries, called Made in China 2025. Beijing aims to make the country a leader in the manufacturing of advanced products, including computer microchips and commercial aircraft. The Trump administration’s statement announcing tariffs managed to mention the Chinese industrial policy program no fewer than five times. But China appears just as determined to preserve the program. 

       特朗普政府大力推動遏制中國3000億美元的政府產(chǎn)業(yè)振興計劃“中國制造2025”。北京旨在讓該國成為先進產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，這些產(chǎn)業(yè)包括計算機芯片和商用飛機。特朗普政府的征收關(guān)稅聲明中，不下五次提到了中國的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策項目。但中國打定決心要推行這一計劃。

      And the trade issue has become so high profile that the Chinese public has come to expect that Beijing will push back hard against the Trump administration’s trade measures.

       另外，貿(mào)易問題如此高調(diào)，中國公眾都期待北京能強硬回懟特朗普政府的貿(mào)易措施。

      “This pressure will be high,” said Tu Xinquan, the director of the China Institute of World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing. “There is no way to move back.”

       “壓力很大，”世界貿(mào)易組織研究所主任屠新泉說。“沒有回頭路。”

       While the American tariffs could hurt specific Chinese industries, they will probably do little to hit China’s overall growth.

      美國的關(guān)稅會對中國特定產(chǎn)業(yè)造成危害，但對中國整體增長可能影響不大。

      Under the tariffs announced on Friday, American buyers must pay 25 percent of the wholesale cost of Chinese-made goods when they hit American docks. The tariffs will ultimately be levied on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, including electric cars and aircraft navigational equipment.

      周五宣布的關(guān)稅措施中，美國買家將在中國產(chǎn)品到岸時多支付25%的批發(fā)價。關(guān)稅最終將涉及價值500億美元的中國出口商品，包括電動汽車、飛機導(dǎo)航設(shè)備。

       While $50 billion sounds like a lot, that represents just 0.4 percent of the Chinese economy. The details suggest the impact may be even less.

        500億美元聽起來挺多，可只有中國經(jīng)濟的0.4%，仔細分析，影響可能比這還小。

      The tariff level, 25 percent, is fairly small compared with those imposed by previous presidents. President Barack Obama put a 35 percent penalty on Chinese-made car- and light-truck tires during his first year in office, President George W. Bush imposed rates of as much as 30 percent on imported steel during his second year in office, while President Ronald Reagan imposed a 100 percent toll on some Japanese electronics near the end of his second term. All those were eventually dropped.

         相比前幾屆總統(tǒng)征收的關(guān)稅，25%甚至還更少一些。執(zhí)政第一年，貝拉克·奧巴馬總統(tǒng)對中國生產(chǎn)的汽車和輕軌輪胎征收了35%的關(guān)稅，小布什第二個任期中對中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)品征收了高達30%的關(guān)稅，羅納德·里根第二個任期即將結(jié)束時對日本電子產(chǎn)品征收100%的費用。所有這些最終都降下去了。

        Some American buyers of Chinese goods may simply choose to pay the newly imposed tariffs rather than find new suppliers elsewhere. 

        某些購買中國商品的美國消費者可能干脆就支付了新征收的關(guān)稅，而非尋找其他新的供應(yīng)商。

     Brad Setser, a Treasury official in the Obama administration who is now an economist at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that China’s exports to the United States in the affected categories could easily be halved by the tariffs. But they would not disappear entirely, as some Chinese products would still be competitive in terms of cost.

        奧巴馬政府執(zhí)政時期的財政部官員、外交關(guān)系委員會經(jīng)濟學(xué)家布拉德·賽斯特說，受影響部門的中國對美出口額可能因關(guān)稅而減半，但不會完全消失，因為某些中國產(chǎn)品可能在成本上仍然具有競爭力。

       Some of the same goods could probably be sold to other countries at slightly lower prices, further limiting the effect on the Chinese economy, Mr. Setser said. Moreover, China’s exports could grow in other areas to offset any drop. Its exports to the United States are already increasing by more than $50 billion each year, and more than 90 percent of China’s exports to the United States are not covered by the tariffs.

       部分商品可能會以更低的價格銷往其他國家，這進一步限制了對中國經(jīng)濟造成的影響，賽斯特說。另外，中國出口在其他地區(qū)取得的增長，可以彌補這部分損失。中國對美出口已經(jīng)每年增長超過500億美元了，且超過九成的中國對美出口商品不受關(guān)稅影響。

       “Even with tariffs on one-tenth of total imports from China, overall imports from China would likely rise,” Mr. Setser said.

       “即便對十分之一的中國出口商品征收關(guān)稅，從中國進口商品的總量可能還會增加，”賽斯特說。

        The tariffs could have a longer-term effect on China, however.

然而，關(guān)稅會對中國產(chǎn)生更加長期的影響。

       Devised as essentially a pre-emptive strike against Chinese subsidies in the Made in China 2025 program, the Trump tariffs could limit eventual sales from these industries. And with the European Union also protesting the Made in China 2025 program, those exports to Europe could suffer, too.

       特朗普的關(guān)稅政策旨在對“中國制造2025”計劃中的補貼政策給予先發(fā)制人的打擊，這可以限制這些部門的產(chǎn)品銷量。由于歐盟也反對“中國制造2025”，對歐出口可能也會受到影響。

       Longer term, the tariffs could spur American companies to move their factories elsewhere. But companies have been reluctant so far to move, as China’s world-class transportation system and well-trained work force still make it highly competitive in all but the lowest-skill, lowest-wage industries.

       從長期看，關(guān)稅會刺激美國公司將工廠轉(zhuǎn)移到其他地區(qū)。但目前公司還不愿意走，中國有世界級的交通系統(tǒng)和訓(xùn)練有素的工人，這讓中國依然具有高度競爭力，除了那些最低端、工資水平最低的產(chǎn)業(yè)。

       On the flip side, the tariffs could help the Chinese government take the heat if the broader economy starts to falter. The economy could slow further as Beijing intensifies debt reduction efforts. Chinese leaders could blame Washington for the slowdown instead.

       可反過來說，如果大的經(jīng)濟形勢開始轉(zhuǎn)壞，關(guān)稅倒能是個說辭。北京進一步削減債務(wù)，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟增長進一步放緩，但中國指責(zé)華盛頓造成了經(jīng)濟放緩。

      While American and European business have long criticized China for not living up to its promises on trade, Chinese officials point to significant moves to free up its limits on foreign businesses since Mr. Trump was elected. These include the removal of what had been a 25 percent limit on foreign investment in Chinese banks. China also plans to lower its tariffs on imported cars.

       盡管美國和歐洲企業(yè)一直批評中國沒有履行貿(mào)易承諾，自特朗普當(dāng)選以來，中國官員說要放松對外企的限制，包括取消外資對中國銀行投資不超過25%的限制。中國還計劃降低對進口汽車的關(guān)稅。

       “They’ve done the things they said,” said Andrew Polk, a co-founder of Trivium/China, a Beijing economic consulting firm.

        “他們說到做到，”位于北京的經(jīng)濟咨詢公司“三藝/中國”的共同創(chuàng)始人安德魯·波爾克說。

 

　　（來源： 英文聯(lián)播）

 

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